Thursday, September 01, 2005

9/02 newsletter

*** Portfolio
Auguest finished with a small (~1-2%) correction across major indexes. High oil price, interest rate hike, and devastation of Katrina did not deter Corporate America from the road of economic growth. Amazing... My portfolio return stands at +12% since 12/1/2004. This ranks at the top of Lipper mutual funds.

*** Comment
http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/CDMTCS/chaitin/sciamer.html

In my search to understand random walk better (which is the foundation of my portfolio model), I stumbled into something that I never expected and never knew before. Check out the above URL. Randomness is far more permeating, it goes into the foundation of math and science, even religion. This man is described as the man who have scratched the corner of eternity.

I still remember, during the college days, we were debating on Bertrand Russel's famous paradox, "Find the smallest positive integer which to be specified requires more characters than there are in this sentence." I thought I understood math quite well over the years. But when I read Chaitin's discovery, I do not think I ever think of anything thoroughly. And that discovery is in the 70's, before I attended college.

If someone is asking whether God exists or not and claims he has thought about it deeply, he should re-examine himself twice. The debate over God in those evangelistic sessions seems so amature compared to Chaitin's research. The glory of God is to hide the truth, indeed... If someone claims he knows the rule of something, he should also restrain himself. For there is a good part of it being random. He is right by accident... The financial market and the church history are the best examples. In the church history, after a long time, only a few doctrines stands as truth, the others are washed out sooner or later. In the financial market, very few companies can survive the random forces. Only the "market" remains after all...

--Steve