8/01 newsletter
*** Market
SP500 avdanced to 1245 during the week, a multi-year high. This is very bullish. If nothing unexpected occurs, this bull could run well into September to challenge 1300 (or even the unlikely 1400), at which time a correction might be needed.
But again, do not count on me for market timing -- as a fameous quote says, "you have heard about fameous investors, but none of them are fameous for market timing". Find good investment rather than time the market. The only use of market timing is to judge over-heated (or undervalued) market and have the guts not to participate in the folly, instead, if you can do better, to take advantage of the folly. Of course, this is easier to say than to do, because by definition folly in financial market always has a large mass participating in it and there is always an atmosphere that nobody think he/she will ever lose. (If some people are still "concerned", the market will push even higher to convince people that they should participate. What are you going to do then?) Benjamin Graham calls this the emotional Mr Market, while Ken Fisher calls it the Great Humiliator.
As you can see from the 3x3 box, mid-cap range is still the darling. Value performs better than growth. But the diff is not that big after April.
On the market, Mr President got his energy bill approved. In the next two years, energy will be the keyword on Wall Street.
--Steve
SP500 avdanced to 1245 during the week, a multi-year high. This is very bullish. If nothing unexpected occurs, this bull could run well into September to challenge 1300 (or even the unlikely 1400), at which time a correction might be needed.
But again, do not count on me for market timing -- as a fameous quote says, "you have heard about fameous investors, but none of them are fameous for market timing". Find good investment rather than time the market. The only use of market timing is to judge over-heated (or undervalued) market and have the guts not to participate in the folly, instead, if you can do better, to take advantage of the folly. Of course, this is easier to say than to do, because by definition folly in financial market always has a large mass participating in it and there is always an atmosphere that nobody think he/she will ever lose. (If some people are still "concerned", the market will push even higher to convince people that they should participate. What are you going to do then?) Benjamin Graham calls this the emotional Mr Market, while Ken Fisher calls it the Great Humiliator.
*** Portfolio (since 12/01/2004 baseline, 8 months)
SP500: +5.1%
My portfolio: +12.6% (7.5% ahead)
Blend Value Growth
Large cap: IWB 6.19 IWD 6.94 IWF 5.43
Mid cap: IWR 12.68 IWS 13.71 IWP 10.64
Small cap: IWM 7.08 IWN 8.07 IWO 5.39
As you can see from the 3x3 box, mid-cap range is still the darling. Value performs better than growth. But the diff is not that big after April.
On the market, Mr President got his energy bill approved. In the next two years, energy will be the keyword on Wall Street.
--Steve
posted by Steve at 3:05 PM
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