7/23 newsletter
*** Market
SP500 is hovering around 1230, all time high. YTD return is around 4-5% now. Not quite big as we wished it to be.
My portfolio has outperformed SP500 7% since it was first implemented in 12/1/2004. It averages to outperform ~1% per month over SP500, even during a flat period such as in the past 6 months. The portfolio return is consistent with the model's return, although the stock selection is somewhat different. This seems to indicate, beyond what can be expected from the stochastic advantage, my stock selection method is somewhat dominated by the random force.
On the market front, Greenspan said it is still necessary to raise interest rate to further contain the inflation pressure, especially from oil and real estate. This will impose a cap on the bulls. However, he believes the economy is growing healthily and is able to absorb the rising cost from oil. (This can be accomplished by passing the cost to the downstream consumers, or else cutting the operation cost. If an enterprise is uncapable of doing either, it is in trouble.)
China finally releases its piggyback on US dollar and lets Yuan float against a bag of currencies. Chinese stocks held on US dollar gained a few percent as a result. A couple percent seems too small for China. But the world is changing again...
--Steve
SP500 is hovering around 1230, all time high. YTD return is around 4-5% now. Not quite big as we wished it to be.
My portfolio has outperformed SP500 7% since it was first implemented in 12/1/2004. It averages to outperform ~1% per month over SP500, even during a flat period such as in the past 6 months. The portfolio return is consistent with the model's return, although the stock selection is somewhat different. This seems to indicate, beyond what can be expected from the stochastic advantage, my stock selection method is somewhat dominated by the random force.
On the market front, Greenspan said it is still necessary to raise interest rate to further contain the inflation pressure, especially from oil and real estate. This will impose a cap on the bulls. However, he believes the economy is growing healthily and is able to absorb the rising cost from oil. (This can be accomplished by passing the cost to the downstream consumers, or else cutting the operation cost. If an enterprise is uncapable of doing either, it is in trouble.)
China finally releases its piggyback on US dollar and lets Yuan float against a bag of currencies. Chinese stocks held on US dollar gained a few percent as a result. A couple percent seems too small for China. But the world is changing again...
--Steve
posted by Steve at 8:16 AM
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