Friday, July 15, 2005

7/15 newsletter

Just to use the few minutes before dinner to write up a few words.

SP500 reached 1230 level this week. This is the highest level in 4 years. Needless to say the bulls are very happy. Oil is around $58-- also at historical highest level. But some believe there is still room for higher price.

The comment from Greenspan about the conudrum of bond market begins to attract more attention. Basically everybody knows that the flattening of yield curve will hurt economy, and low bond yield has resulted in an overheated housing market. But the vested interest of foreign central banks, notibly Japan and China, is to keep bond price high, therefore, yield low. Who is going to win?

If on the other hand, FED gives up the fight on long bond, and turns around to lower the short term rate, it will create a very powerful speculative bull in stock market.

--Steve